IOL Fluorochemical Weekly Report: Loose Quotas in Refrigerant Market at Year-Start, Air Conditioner and Automotive Sectors Dominate Demand

Refrigerant: Loose Market Quotas at Year's Start, Air Conditioner and Automotive Sectors Drive Primary Demand
This week, the refrigerant market saw a slow start and remained relatively stable. Key market features during the week:  Entering the new fiscal year, as the new annual quotas took effect, factories gradually resumed production, but overall operating capacity remained low. Domestic and international market quotations and order placements proceeded orderly, but due to downstream resistance to high prices and the time required for export permit processing, actual trading activity remained subdued, with spot demand dominating.  Affected by weak overall demand, prices of upstream raw material products saw more declines than increases.  On the demand side, driven by strong growth in new energy vehicle sales and increased per-vehicle refrigerant filling, coupled with positive production forecasts for air conditioners in 2026, refrigerant demand is expected to maintain a growth trend.  Overall, the market exhibited a strong wait-and-see sentiment at the beginning of the year. Under the combined constraints of supply quotas and clear demand benefits, refrigerant prices are expected to continue a steady upward trend.  Notably, the annual quota adjustment increment for individual HFCs in 2026 increased from last year's 10% to 30%, and factories may flexibly adjust annual quotas for popular refrigerants based on market demand, leading to significant divergence in supply-demand dynamics across different refrigerant types.

Fluorinated polymers: intense supply-demand competition, mainstream products in the off-season market are under pressure and operating at the bottom
This week, the fluorinated polymer market continued to have loose supply, strong cost support, and mainstream products were under pressure to operate at the bottom, resulting in a record low annual average price. Market characteristics during the week: After the price increase of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid, the cost support for the entire range of PVDF, PTFE, FEP and other products has been strengthened, but the cost transmission has limited impact on price rebound. On the supply side, the increase in factory equipment maintenance and load reduction at the end of the year is conducive to maintaining stability and exploring growth in the short-term market dominated by rigid demand. On the demand side, traditional chemical anti-corrosion, automotive and transportation, machinery and industrial manufacturing, national defense and military industries have stable demand, while emerging fields such as new energy, semiconductors, medical and health, aerospace, environmental engineering, AI and data centers are expected to experience explosive growth in demand. From a product perspective, the cost support of popular products has increased, and factories have a strong mentality of raising prices, but the acceptance rate of end-users is low. The short-term market for fluoropolymers will still be affected by weak demand during the off-season, but prices may remain stable and fluctuate slightly due to expectations of reduced supply.

Weekly News
01
More than 4000 enterprises have completed the sales registration of HCFCs/HFCs by 2025
On January 6th, the Compliance Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice that the ODS information management system has announced the 2025 filing results: 2659 enterprises have successfully completed the sales filing of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and 2059 enterprises have completed the sales filing of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This announcement has three core points that relevant enterprises must pay close attention to: enterprises that have been registered in 2025 must continue to complete the registration procedures according to regulations in 2026 to ensure the continued effectiveness of sales qualifications; ODS using enterprises need to strictly verify the qualifications of suppliers and can only purchase from enterprises that have completed filing. If this regulation is violated, it will be punished according to Article 18 and Article 34 of the Regulations on the Management of Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer; Enterprises engaged in ODS sales that are not included in the 2025 filing list must complete the filing as soon as possible by 2026 to avoid affecting normal operations due to lack of qualifications.
02
Tianci Materials builds a new 3000 ton anhydrous hydrogen fluoride project
On January 5, 2026, the Ecology and Environment Bureau of Jiujiang City released the environmental impact assessment report for the annual production of 3000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride by Jiujiang Tianci New Power Material Technology Co., Ltd., which is intended to be accepted for public announcement. The total investment of this project is 46.81 million yuan, located in the southern factory area of Longshan Base. It uses the by-product fluorosilicic acid produced by the Dongzhi Tianci fluorite method of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, which belongs to the Tianci Group, and the industrial grade 98% concentrated sulfuric acid produced by the construction unit as raw materials to produce anhydrous hydrogen fluoride.
03
The Ministry of Commerce issues a notice on strengthening the export control of dual-use items to Japan
This week, the fluorinated polymer market continued to have loose supply, strong cost support, and mainstream products were under pressure to operate at the bottom, resulting in a record low annual average price. Market characteristics during the week: After the price increase of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid, the cost support for the entire range of PVDF, PTFE, FEP and other products has been strengthened, but the cost transmission has limited impact on price rebound. On the supply side, the increase in factory equipment maintenance and load reduction at the end of the year is conducive to maintaining stability and exploring growth in the short-term market dominated by rigid demand. On the demand side, traditional chemical anti-corrosion, automotive and transportation, machinery and industrial manufacturing, national defense and military industries have stable demand, while emerging fields such as new energy, semiconductors, medical and health, aerospace, environmental engineering, AI and data centers are expected to experience explosive growth in demand. From a product perspective, the cost support of popular products has increased, and factories have a strong mentality of raising prices, but the acceptance rate of end-users is low. The short-term market for fluoropolymers will still be affected by weak demand during the off-season, but prices may remain stable and fluctuate slightly due to expectations of reduced supply.
04
Tianci Material: Net profit expected to increase by up to 230.63% in 2025

On December 31, 2025, Tianci Materials released a performance forecast announcement for the year 2025. It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2025 will change within the range of RMB 1.1 billion to RMB 1.6 billion, with an increase range of 127.31% to 230.63% compared to the same period last year. The main reason is the continuous growth of demand in the new energy vehicle market and the rapid growth of demand in the energy storage market, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in the company's sales of lithium-ion battery materials. At the same time, due to the increase in production capacity of the company's core raw materials and cost control in the production process, the overall profitability has improved.