Soaring by 300%! Chemical raw materials are prone to rise but difficult to fall!
On April 23rd, Brent crude oil futures rose above $106, with a intraday increase of over 3%; WTI crude oil futures rose above $97 at one point, up 4% for the day. Since the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran on February 28th, as of April 23rd, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 46%, with the highest point occurring on March 9th, up 65% from February 28th.
With the impact of geopolitical conflicts, global chemical prices have skyrocketed, with one price per day and one price per order becoming commonplace. Many people attribute this round of raw material price increases to the US Iran conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, but is this really the case?
1、 300% surge, chemical raw material prices fluctuate and rise
Between January 1, 2026 and February 27, 2026, more than 100 types of raw material prices in the domestic chemical industry have experienced varying degrees of increase. Among them, the prices of lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride (battery grade), industrial grade, and battery grade lithium carbonate have all risen by 40% to 50%. At this time, international crude oil is still in a stable state and there has been no significant increase in crude oil prices.
Price increase of chemical raw materials from January to February 27, 2026
The rise in chemical prices from the low point in recent years to April 22
From the above table, the price of reducing materials has skyrocketed from 25000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2026 to over 100000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300%;
The price of trimellitic anhydride (TMA) reached its lowest point in recent years in early 2026, with mainstream transaction prices dropping to around 13000 yuan/ton. In April 2026, TMA prices continued to hover around 43000 yuan/ton, skyrocketing by 230%.
Overall, the rise in chemical raw material prices did not begin after geopolitical conflicts, but was already poised to occur by the end of 2025. Geopolitical conflicts and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz only further accelerated the rate of increase in chemical raw material prices.
An industry insider once told Paint Procurement Network that even without geopolitical conflicts, raw material prices would still be raised in March and April. The previous prices and values were in an unbalanced state, and continuing to be low would not allow anyone to survive.
2、 The rise of coating raw materials across the board: cost transmission combined with cycle driven
Affected by the rising prices of upstream chemical raw materials, mainstream varieties such as acrylic esters, alcohol ether solvents, and ketones in coating raw materials have seen a comprehensive surge, with over 70% of varieties increasing by more than 50%, which is highly consistent with the overall 68% upward trend of chemical products. This indicates that the price increase of coating raw materials is not a short-term event, but an inevitable result of industry cycles and cost transmission.
Rising trend of paint raw materials (average price in November 2025/daily price on April 22, 2026)
Although some raw material prices have recently fallen, they are still fluctuating at a high level, with methyl acrylate (+94.7%), ethylene glycol monobutyl ether (+78.1%), propylene glycol methyl ether acetate (+72.9%), butanone (+83.2%), MIBK (+74.5%), pure benzene (+59.6%), methanol (+61.0%) and others leading the way in gains.
2、 Prepare for long-term high levels of chemical raw materials this year
With the continuous changes in the international situation, many chemical workers believe that as long as the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz is completely opened, the prices of chemical raw materials will return to their previous state.
Firstly, the global geopolitical conflict is not the main cause of this round of raw material price increases, but rather a driving force. Prior to this, the prices of various chemical raw materials in China had already begun to rise, and chemical raw materials had entered an upward cycle.
Secondly, since the US Iran conflict, the oil supply facilities of some Middle Eastern countries have been damaged to varying degrees, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. However, even after the end of the war and the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is difficult for the damaged oil supply facilities to resume production in a short period of time. At the same time, due to changes in the international situation, the pace of oil reserves in other countries will continue to accelerate, resulting in supply shortages. Therefore, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels, and it will be difficult for raw material prices to return to their previous state.
Finally, for the first time in 2025, the Central Economic Work Conference listed "reasonable price recovery" and "stable economic growth" as important considerations for monetary policy; The government work report for 2026 specifies that the target for the increase in consumer prices for residents is set at around 2%, promoting the overall price level from negative to positive.
From a comprehensive perspective of three factors, the prices of various raw materials, including bulk commodities, in China will remain high and fluctuate in the future, and will not return to the low level of 2025. For low-priced competitive enterprises, they will inevitably be eliminated. For medium and large enterprises, cost reduction and efficiency improvement are also very urgent.
