Further increase in self-sufficiency rate of domestic shortage of petrochemical products
Coating Industry:
Last year, China's ethylene, paraxylene (PX), and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) production capacity grew rapidly, and polyethylene (PE) also increased synchronously with ethylene production capacity. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of petrochemical products such as ethylene, PX, and PE, which are in short supply in China, is constantly increasing.
In 2022, China's ethylene production capacity ranked first in the world for the first time, and the equivalent self-sufficiency rate continued to increase. "Sun Weishan, Vice President of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, stated in the release of the" 2023 Key Petrochemical Product Production Capacity Warning Report ".
According to the "Early Warning Report", in 2022, a total of 5 new ethylene plants were built and put into operation in China, with an additional production capacity of 5.25 million tons and a total production capacity of 46.75 million tons, an increase of 12.7% compared to the previous year, ranking first in the world for the first time; The equivalent self-sufficiency rate has increased to 66.2%, an increase of 16.3% compared to 2020.
China's ethylene industry is still in the peak period of capacity expansion. Currently, it is planned to build or expand an ethylene production capacity of 34.75 million tons per year, mostly through integrated refining and chemical projects. It is expected that 5.6 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation in 2023, with a total production capacity of 52.2 million tons. The self-sufficiency rate of domestic ethylene will further increase. By 2025, China's ethylene production capacity will reach about 70 million tons, with a production capacity of about 58 million tons, which can basically achieve self-sufficiency, "said Sun Weishan.
The "Early Warning Report" points out that there is still a certain gap in China's PX production capacity, but the self-sufficiency rate will also significantly increase before 2025. In 2022, the total production capacity of PX in China was 34.67 million tons, an increase of 9.7% compared to the previous year; The production was 24.75 million tons, an increase of 14.6% compared to the previous year; With the rapid increase in production capacity and output, China's PX self-sufficiency rate has significantly increased, from 61.3% in 2021 to 70.2%. Currently, there are 12.7 million tons/year of PX production capacity under construction and planned, and it is expected that the total production capacity will reach 42.37 million tons by the end of 2023, an increase of over 20%. With a large amount of production capacity continuing to be put into operation, it is expected that China's PX production capacity will exceed 46 million tons by the end of 2025, and the self-sufficiency rate will further increase.
With the synchronous increase of ethylene production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate is also constantly improving, "said Sun Weishan. It is understood that in 2022, the new PE production capacity will reach 1.45 million tons, reaching 29.81 million tons, an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous year. Most of the new production capacity was put into operation in the first half of 2022, with a production capacity of 25.316 million tons, an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous year. With the increase in domestic supply, the net import volume of PE decreased by 9.5% compared to the previous year, to 12.745 million tons; The self-sufficiency rate of PE increased to 66.5%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points compared to the previous year.
It is expected that the total domestic PE production capacity in the next 5 years will be 24.58 million tons/year. In 2023, China will add 5 million tons of new PE production capacity, and by 2025, the PE production capacity is expected to exceed 50 million tons, which will have the ability to meet domestic demand.
