The impact of US tariffs on the export of refrigerants from China is expected to be limited

On November 25th local time, US President elect Trump announced that he will impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada entering the United States, and plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This news quickly attracted widespread attention from the industry.
IOL viewpoint:
The impact of US tariffs on Chinese refrigerant companies is expected to be limited
According to data from the General Administration of Customs from January to October 2024, China exported a total of 27000 tons of refrigerant products to the United States, accounting for 8.4% of total exports.
Among them, the export volume of HFC-152a ranks first, with a total export of 11485 tons from January to October, accounting for 38.3% of China's total export of this product; The second ranked export product is R410A, which exported approximately 3435 tons to the United States from January to October, but only accounted for 5.1% of China's R410A exports; The third ranked export product is the fourth generation refrigerant
HCFO-1233zd， The export volume is 2797 tons, accounting for 28.8% of China's total exports of this product.

It is not difficult to observe that among the products with a large export volume from China, the proportion of exports to the United States is relatively low. Although a relatively high proportion of some products are exported to the United States, the total export volume of such products in China is relatively small.

The AIM Act enacted by the United States stipulates that from 2025 onwards, R410A will not be applicable to air conditioning products targeting the US market, and high GWP refrigerants will not be applicable to refrigeration products targeting the US market. The SNAP regulations in the United States also propose requirements for refrigerant application, stipulating the transition of refrigerant use to fourth generation products. These regulations will affect the export proportion structure of China's refrigerant products, and there is an expectation of a significant increase in the proportion of fourth generation products exported to the United States.
Meanwhile, according to the report "Which Policies Will Trump Prioritize and What Will Their Impact Be?" by the Open Source Securities Macro Team, although Trump claims to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods if he takes office, the priority of tariffs may be relatively low, and tariffs are a means rather than the ultimate goal. Referring to the first phase of the China US trade agreement, the ultimate impact of tariffs is highly uncertain.
The imposition of tariffs by the United States will undoubtedly affect the export of refrigerant products from China. However, overall, the total amount of products exported from China to the United States is relatively small. Coupled with the clear trend of refrigerant substitution under US regulations and the uncertainty of future tariff policies, the impact of US tariffs on the export of refrigerant companies from China is expected to be limited.