IOL Fluorochemical Weekly Report: Most products are not affected by "equivalent tariffs" due to high refrigerant prices

One week market
Refrigerant: The peak demand season for the second quarter is approaching, and the industry continues to have a high atmosphere
This week, downstream industries entered the peak production season, with strong demand supporting the continued high prices of mainstream refrigerants. Market characteristics of the week: weak downstream demand for dichloromethane and tetrachloroethylene, light production and sales, leading to a further decline in prices; The overall production and sales of other raw material products are still acceptable, with prices mainly fluctuating within a narrow range. As the downstream air conditioning industry enters the peak production season and overall demand increases, the operating load of mainstream refrigerant factories is at 8-9%. With the rise of temperatures in various regions, the peak season for downstream air conditioning, automotive, and refrigeration industries is approaching, and there is an expected increase in domestic demand. In addition, the current mainstream refrigerant exports are good, and factories have sufficient confidence in rising prices. It is expected that with the start of the peak season, the tight supply of refrigerants will intensify, and prices are expected to rise to new highs. It is worth noting that the United States currently imposes a total tariff of 104% on goods made in China. However, given that the United States has previously imposed anti-dumping tariffs of 160-285% on mainstream HFC refrigerant products, the quantity exported to the United States is relatively small, and the latest tariff adjustment may have little impact on refrigerant export demand; However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariff policy adjustments on the export market of downstream home appliance industries in the later stage.

Fluorinated polymers: Strong upstream cost support, loose supply and demand relationship leading to weak and stable prices, consolidation
This week, due to the recent increase in R22 prices, cost support has strengthened and driven HFP prices. However, due to weak downstream demand, prices of fluoropolymer products have remained weak and stable. In recent years, the expansion speed has been faster than the demand growth rate of the application industry, and the TFE series and VDF series products are collectively facing downward pressure on prices. Although enterprises need to actively respond through cost control and differentiated layout, the fluorine material business can feel the industry dilemma of "increasing quantity and decreasing price" from the annual reports of top listed companies such as Dongyue Group, Liwen Chemical, Xinzhoubang, and Tianci Materials. A series of tariff policies in the United States have directly affected the price competitiveness of China's export products. However, according to the exemption list released by the United States, although more than 10 fluorine chemical products such as fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, PTFE, and other fluorine-containing polymers are exempted, raw material products related to polymers may be affected. The short-term mainstream export of fluoropolymers is not yet affected by the tariff war, but the uncertainty of export demand may be an important factor affecting market trends in the later stage.

This Week
01
Juhua: The company's refrigerant products are not affected by the current "equivalent tariffs" between China and the United States
Juhua Corporation recently announced that due to the inclusion of R134a, some mixed refrigerants, and HFOs in the US tariff exemption list, the original tariff rates will be implemented; At present, the United States has imposed anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs (200%+)+20% on the export of R134a, R125, R32 and their mixtures to China. In 2024, our company's domestic export of refrigerants (all HFOs) to the United States accounted for less than 2% of our company's revenue. It is expected that there is still good growth space for refrigerants and their downstream products in China; At present, China has implemented a production quota system for second-generation and third-generation fluorine refrigerants, and some products are in short supply. The addition of "equivalent tariffs" by China and the United States this time will not change the competition pattern, supply and demand pattern, and price upward trend of fluorine refrigerants.
02
Two refrigerant projects from Sanmei have been included in the major construction projects of Zhejiang's "Thousand Trillion Project 2025"
The Zhejiang Sanmei Nian Intelligent Packaging 35 million bottle refrigerant production line and supporting facilities project, as well as the Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Co., Ltd. 90000 tons/year epichlorohydrin, 10000 tons/year tetrafluoropropene, and 20000 tons/year polyvinylidene fluoride construction project, have been included as major construction projects in Zhejiang's "Thousand Trillion Project 2025". Among them, the planned construction period for the 35 million bottle refrigerant production line project is 2 years; The project plan for 90000 tons/year epoxy chloropropane and other products is divided into three phases, with an estimated construction period of 4 years.
03
Environmental Impact Assessment Announcement for Zibo Feiyuan Chemical Trifluorochemicals Supporting Technical Renovation Project
On April 10th, the Ecological Environment Bureau of Zibo City accepted and published the Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the Three Fluorochemicals Supporting Technical Renovation Project of Zibo Feiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. The project plans to invest 30 million yuan to renovate and expand the existing 4000t/a trifluoroacetic acid plant to 8000t/a. The trifluoroacetic acid production capacity will increase by 4000t/a (corresponding to the intermediate product trifluoroacetic acid production capacity of 5198t/a), the by-product 31% hydrochloric acid will increase by 13863.25t/a, and the by-product 70% sulfuric acid will increase by 8790 tons/year. The expected construction period is 10 months.

04
Haidefu's Annual Production of 5000 Tons of High Performance Fluorine Materials Project (Phase 1.5) Phase I Announcement
On April 3rd, the first phase environmental impact assessment (EIA) of the Haidefu 5000 ton/year high-performance fluorine material project (Phase 1.5) of Fujian Haidefu New Materials Co., Ltd. was announced. The project is located in Jintang Industrial Park, Shaowu City, Nanping City, and is planned to be implemented in three phases. The first phase will build an annual output of 1900 tons of high-performance fluorine materials, while the second phase will not increase production capacity. The main content is to update and rearrange some equipment models; The third phase involves the construction of high-performance fluorine materials with an annual output of 3100 tons.